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Insight - Making Sense of the Narrative


The market is dealing with two major uncertainties – the actual nature of the Covid-19 virus and the impact that it will have on the global economy, or more specifically the impact that the efforts made to deal with the virus will have on the global economy.

Markets are in the ‘Did I miss it’? phase, wondering if the rally from the end March lows will now be followed by a long period of consolidation or a return to previous lows.

There are two important aphorisms to remember when consulting ‘experts’ ; the first is Warren Buffet’s comment that “You should never ask a barber if you need a haircut” , or in a similar vein, ask a General if you need to go to war or if he needs more money for weapons. The second is the old expression from the Soviet Union, “to a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”

After this week’s fun and games in the Oil derivatives markets, we should not lose sight of the underlying pressures in the oil patch.

Some extreme fun and games in the Oil markets overnight as CL1, the generic first contract for WTI crude went below zero, hitting minus $42 at one point as the May contract expired.