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Insight - Making Sense of the Narrative


This time last year we were honoured to be invited to 'pitch' at the Sohn Conference in Hong Kong. Team Tosca's pick, Italian Bank BPER, came in a solid second with a return of over 100%, making the case for the bank, but also the wider thematic of European Financials being winners under the new New Normal. We had the added 'benefit' that the whole sector was oversold on a macro/emotional basis in the wake of the Silicon valley Bank debacle last March and while that has now unwound, the positive stance on the sector remains intact.

The behavioural biases discussed in Daniel Kahneman's 2011 classic Thinking Fast and Slow are central to Market Thinking and our efforts to not only understand the biases in other investors, but to control them in ourselves, We have now created a system that allows us to reduce our own unforced errors, while recognising them in others in order to understand better 'the narrative'. These tools are now being used in a newly launched UCITS fund bringing together Market Thinking and highly regarded alternatives manager Toscafund.