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Insight - Making Sense of the Narrative


The recent spike in Gold has baffled many, but brings together medium term risk management concerns by Central Banks to move away from the $ and investor concerns over the inflationary aspects and oversupply of Treasuries associated with US Fiscal Policy. Gold, and cash are the new risk off assets. The proximate near term cause may be an apparent move by US Banks to get exemption to fund a lucrative carry trade in Treasuries, but this back Door QE is making macro traders nervous and looks to be linking Bitcoin enthusiasts with fellow $ catastrophists in the Gold market - offering BOLD, a new blend of Bitcoin and Gold as the new 60;40 fund.

The popularity of the 'neither of the above' candidate RFK jnr raises an intriguing possibility of a contingent Election in the US, with the new House of Representatives picking the President. Smart analysts like Dr Pippa Malmgrem are starting to talk about it, while the betting markets are also starting to move. The financial markets? Not yet.

Today in the Alps it is -2 at the top of the mountain and 4 degrees in town. So what is the actual temperature in Chamonix? The reason for this post is that on Wednesday it will apparently reach 20 degrees in town, having been 1 degree in the morning, while still being below freezing up where they are skiing. This degree of variation in a single town on a single day gives lie to the idea that we can measure the average temperature of the whole world to within 0.1 degree, not only today, but over thousands of years and predict it into the future. On such false precision we are making huge economic decisions...