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Insight - Making Sense of the Narrative


With an upcoming Camp David meeting with US 'allies' in Asia and the BRICS meeting in South Africa, the narrative on China was always going to take a more negative tone. Investors need to recognise that while in the short term narrative managers may dominate, in the longer term cash flows count. China's troubles are not new, but nether are they anywhere near as bad as presented; exports are slowing, but still 40% up on pre Covid levels, while GDP growth is still 3x the US and 10x Europe. China offers both opportunities and threats, but what it doesn't offer is the opportunity to ignore it.

Almost nobody has heard of Wang Huning, but as the eminence gris of China, he has survived three Great Leaders, Ziang, Hu and now Xi and is the key driver of Chinese political philosophy. To understand him is to perhaps begin to understand today's China.