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Insight - Making Sense of the Narrative


If we had a blank sheet of paper and a New Year resolution to make better investments in 2024, what would we resolve? We would take out the unforced errors built into the system and achieve what Charlie Munger would term an advantage, not by being brilliant, but by consistently 'not being stupid'. That means weighting portfolios by conviction on return not market capitalisation, recognising that volatility and benchmark 'tracking error' are not good measures of risk to the underlying investor but create perverse incentives for managers of other people's money. It also means taking out the emotional element of investing by building systems to eliminate behavioural biases that will enable us to take better decisions.

Media Commentators don't want to hear what Trump is saying, watch his rallies or talk about his likely policies. But the markets are starting to pay attention.

The traders unofficial year end at Thanksgiving produced a lot of mean reversion including powerful short squeezes in Equities and bonds and even if they have run out of momentum they have catalysed cash to move into Equities and bonds, focussing the mind of Asset Allocators on the challenges for 2024, first and foremost being that they need to generate real returns and beat cash rather than simply hug it.

The Financial media was awash with deserved tributes to Charlie Munger last week. We wanted to add our own, short, tribute to the definitive long term investor, whose thoughts and wisdom are not only timeless, but also in a world of normalisation of interest rates are starting to come back into 'fashion'