You're now leaving the Market Thinking website

Please note that you are about to leave the website of Market Thinking and be redirected to Toscafund Hong Kong. For further information, please contact Toscafund Hong Kong.


Insight - Making Sense of the Narrative


After a weak September, Equity markets have recovered in the last few weeks as buy on the dips seems to have kicked back in (as well as some momentum chasing or buy on the rips) for a strong looking seasonal effect in the fourth quarter.

As COP26 turns into a sort of Glastonbury for ESG funds, nobody seems to have noticed that all the big energy users have already committed to ‘new nuclear’ already and thus it is the collection of Robber Barons from Finance, tech, industry and the Green Industrial Complex who are all busy lobbying government ministers for a share in the huge Green Tax revenues that should be coming under scrutiny for their sustainability.

The latest piece for AFR went up yesterday. It is behind a firewall, so here for readers is a version of the draft I sent. Essentially it is making the point that inflation has not arrived thanks to Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), but rather due to Zero Covid and Zero Carbon policies and that, for all its irrationality, reversing ZIRP would not only not solve inflation, but likely cause stagflation.

A digital coin that doesn’t change in value (up or down) is the missing component that has so far prevented the online world of internet 3.0 transitioning from an entertainment space to a genuine alternative Economy.

As the rhetoric for War in the South China Sea is ramped up almost 25 years after Bond villain Elliot Carver tried to do it to sell more newspapers, the good news is that, when looked at properly, China’s apparent aggression against Taiwan is more about countering what it sees as western provocations.