You're now leaving the Market Thinking website

Please note that you are about to leave the website of Market Thinking and be redirected to Toscafund Hong Kong. For further information, please contact Toscafund Hong Kong.


Insight - Making Sense of the Narrative


Almost nobody has heard of Wang Huning, but as the eminence gris of China, he has survived three Great Leaders, Ziang, Hu and now Xi and is the key driver of Chinese political philosophy. To understand him is to perhaps begin to understand today's China.

As Twain observed, “It is easier to fool people than convince them they have been fooled”, and thus the best route for investors is to acknowledge that the modelers will continue to assume a precision they do not have with a conviction that we should not share, but that precisely because policymakers fail to learn from history or the fact that it rhymes, they will continue to do ‘the wrong thing’. This is the background against which we have to make our own decisions.

A welcome return to the Bloomberg studios to talk about some of the big trends in the background, specifically the emergence of a Dollar zone and a 'de-dollarised zone' with long term implications for capital flows and investment opportunities

Despite Banking crises, markets ended the month and the quarter higher, giving relief to 60;40 funds and grief to Macro Hedge Funds, caught short once again. Geo-politics is building a new, non $ zone, which together with the Japanese shifting their monetary policy stance threatens significant changes to the 'plumbing' of global markets.