What Mark Twain would tell us about the economy

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April 18, 2023
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Lightning Strikes and Butterfly WIngs

In the internet boom investors chased stocks like Nokia, Ericsson and Cisco to crazy sales multiples that required growth to be not just good, but parabolic to deliver any returns. A small disruption to those expectations led to a profit warning and a crash in the market. AI is the new 'internet' and investors are once again chasing picks and shovels. However, when a market is putting China stocks on less than 1x sales due to 'concerns over China/Taiwan while simultaneously paying 40x sales for a company where half its customers and all its manufacturing is done in the region, there is something of a disconnect in the risk management.

Market Thinking February 2024

The Bond markets have curbed some of their enthusiasm over rate cuts while momentum stays with US tech. Japan and EM ex China continue to behave well, although China continues to behave like a bear market, This has little to do with fundamentals like value or earnings and more to do with perceptions of risk and uncertainty that are driving liquidity flows. However, we would note that the stock market is not the Bellweather of the Economy that it is in the US and that intervention will take place only for stabilisation. They do not believe in the so called Fed put, or the wealth effect.

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