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Insight - Making Sense of the Narrative


Having highlighted the role of Professor Neil Ferguson and the team of catastrophists at Imperial College in the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease response (Oxford versus Imperial) it was interesting to see the article in the Daily Telegraph

While (still) not being an expert on viruses, we note the difference of opinion between several people that are.

Like more than 99% of the people commenting on the Covid 19 virus, we are not expert virologists, but we are ‘humble students of the markets’ which means we are interested in the psychology of crowds as well as the behaviour of state and other actors.

When we see an unexpected event in markets, there is a tendency to quickly check ‘What Happened Last Time?’ (WHLT).

When the virus scare began we noted that there would be two important components to calling the bottom from a market perspective; first that the rate of growth of new cases would have to slow – the second derivative – and second, we needed to observe how despite this occurring, the market mechanics themselves chose to behave in the face of this.