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Insight - Making Sense of the Narrative


The top down case for European Banks – this time it really is different...

Token valuation relies on magic–belief, actually. That is, tokens are valuable if people believe they are valuable–that is, if they have trust in their value. Furthermore, there is a sort of information cascade logic that can create market value: if people see that a token sells at a positive price–especially if it sells at a very large positive price–and they observe that supposedly smart people hold it, they conclude it must have some intrinsic value. So they pile in, increasing the value, validating beliefs, and extending the information cascade.

*On the basis that among the many things we couldn’t believe about the FTX debacle, we thought it couldn’t be a real name, we tried myriad versions of anagrams of Sam(uel) Bankman Fried and concluded that while Slam me a...

Seasonality in markets often has underlying market mechanics behind it. The end of October for example is the deadline for tax loss selling by US mutual funds, something overlooked in a bull market, but obviously highly important this year, while the end of November is Thanksgiving, which has tended to represent a year-end for many macro funds, likely some of the few looking to lock in any profits and performance fees for 2022.