As well as being a new Netflix series (based on hugely popular SciFi series from China), the key feature of a three body problem according to Wikipedia is that, Unlike two-body problems, no general closed-form solution exists,^[1] as the resulting dynamical system is chaotic for most initial conditions, and numerical methods are generally required.

Applied to the US Election system - usually a two body problem - the introduction of a third body (party) has the ability to create a chaotic system.

Dr Pippa Malmgrem is a highly unusual writer, being both a Washington insider and an out of the box thinker. As such I find her substack extremely interesting and a must read. In particular, this latest post in which she points out that the peculiarities of the US Electoral system are such that it is now quite credible to suggest that the next US President could actually be Robert F Kennedy Jnr.

How exactly? Well, according to Dr Pippa,

Dr Pippa’s Pod and Pen

As she previously pointed out, if RFK flips just one state and Trump at least 2, then Biden won’t get to 270 votes. RFK jnr has formed a party called ‘We the people’, riffing on the first lines of the constitution, which has attracted a lot of attention, not least from former Google chair and ex wife of Sergei Brin, Nicole Shannahan, who Dr Pippa thinks will be his VP. Her thesis is that, echoing Marshall Mcluen ‘the medium is the message’ and that Clinton won using TV (especially Saturday night live), Obama won with the relatively new YouTube and Trump of course with Twitter. RFK’s podcast with Joe Rogan attracted 30 million views and is one reason why he is far better known with the podcast generation than the media establishment concede, but bringing Google and its AI algos into the tent to compete with Nancy Pelosi and the Octogenarians is an intriguing thought.

‘We the people’ could emulate Macron’s ‘En Marche’ and upend the traditional two party system

Also interestingly, Dr Pippa has previously noted that historically  the US loves an outsider candidate. George Bush was seen as unassailable until a little known Arkansas Governor (helped by a split vote due to independent Ross Perot) broke through with only 43% of the vote. Equally, the ‘unknown’ Obama beat Hilary Clinton to the nomination and then establishment Romney and McCain to the Presidency. Even Bush jnr was seen as an outsider, while Jeb, the insider, was defeated by the latest outsider, Donald Trump. With almost half the US electorate polling as ‘independent’ and the numbers of ‘never Trumpers’ and ‘never Bidens’ growing rapidly, a none of the above candidate could do very well, and if Dr Pippa’s logic on the contingent Election holds good, maybe even win the Presidency.

Interesting to watch the betting markets, where RFK junior is now 32 to 1, while Gavin Newsom, who had been coming in sharply as a Biden replacement candidate, has backed out to 60 to 1. As to the financial markets, it’s difficult to see how this scenario is being priced in anywhere. Yet.

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