Sell Mortimer! Sell!

1 min
read
April 21, 2020
Print Friendly and PDF
Print Friendly and PDF
Back

Some extreme fun and games in the Oil markets overnight as CL1, the generic first contract for WTI crude went below zero, hitting minus $42 at one point as the May contract expired. By contrast, as the chart shows, the CO1 contract, which is for Brent Crude ‘merely’ hit $21, a level close to where the June WTI contract now trades. We couldn’t help but think of these guys..

The modern day Duke brothers are as likely trading in Korea or Japan as New York, but it is clear that some people had a very bad day in the Commodities markets. The reason for the difference between the two contracts is that WTI – the West Texas Intermediate Crude – requires physical delivery at Cushing in Oklahoma, something which is extremely difficult to achieve at the moment, not least as we explained a couple of weeks ago because almost all available storage is full. Indeed, according to Bloomberg, Cushing is basically full. Brent by contrast can be delivered offshore.

Chart 1. From +$63 to -$37 in One Quarter

As to who took the proverbial bath, it’s most likely to have been fast money retail, as institutional investors normally roll contracts much earlier, never letting them actually expire. Bloomberg reports problems with exchanges in South Korea, which froze as they quite literally were unable to input a negative price. However, it would be nice to think that there were some modern day Duke Brothers on one side, and the little guy on the other. Looking good Lewis…

Continue Reading

Could a BRICS+ Currency be the October Surprise?

The term "October Surprise' refers to an event that is timed to coincide with US Presidential Elections. While we obviously can not predict any unforeseen event, we can highlight things that are happening that may be brought to our attention this month. One such is the UNIT, the plan for a BRICS+ trading currency, backed by a mixture of currencies and Gold. This is not about replacing the Dollar a s reserve currency, more about replacing SWIFT as a Global Exchange, with wider implications for the FX markets - $6tn a year of Global trade supports $7.5trn a day of FX markets. Take the $ out of half of those trades and the system faces a dramatic reset.\, including diversification away from the $

React rather than predict - October Market Thinking

October has poor seasonality, none worse than in an Election year. After a strong q3, especially for equal weighted SPW (a proxy for active managers), we see caution prevailing in q4, with profits being taken and cash waiting to react rather than trying predict. We don't believe either the US or China are going for a big monetary stimulus and see the latter in particular as allowing creative destruction of the speculative property developers while setting up for a Capital Market with Chinese characteristics. Retail may get excited about China short term, but the long term asset allocation story is the one to buy on the dips. Meanwhile, diversification and the Dollar are a key focus, especially with the BRICS+ summit this month raising the prospects of a new trading currency - the UNIT

You're now leaving the Market Thinking website

Please note that you are about to leave the website of Market Thinking and be redirected to Toscafund Hong Kong. For further information, please contact Toscafund Hong Kong.

ACCEPT