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Following the powerful bounce from the March 2020 lows and the strength of the Santa Claus rallies at the end of the year, it was perhaps not too surprising to see some backing-off from the major equity indices towards the end of January, not least as many investors and asset allocators will be reviewing the likely very strong fiscal year returns due for the year to end March, given the timing of the market lows.
As the laptop-wielding video gamers turned day traders take their battle to the Hedge Fund Masters of the Universe, they need to recognise that the regulators are going to come in soon.
As we look into 2021, we recognise that while on the one hand markets tend to extend their time horizon somewhat at the start of the year, on the other hand the world does not change simply because the calendar does.
As usual, markets are now largely flat going into year end and the investor time horizon is starting to stretch out a little as we consider the prospects for 2021.
The latest set of regulations from the UK bring to mind the line from CS Lewis about Narnia, where it was “Always Winter but never Christmas”. C.S. Lewis was writing in a time of growing authoritarianism and at some point we are going to have to recognise that this is no longer about public health, but about a reluctance to relinquish power, once seized.