Amid all the discussions about the sanctions – and counter sanctions- against Russia, an extremely important issue is rearing its head; what is the future of the Petro-Dollar?

The job vacancies created by the ‘unexpected early retirements’ of two Fed Presidents seen as Hawkish on Monetary Policy may well be seen as an important catalyst for US fixed income and currency traders, but history may instead see these changes as an important catalyst in a populist resurgence and a pushback against Crony Capitalism and the behaviour of the 1%

The following is based on an article submitted to the Australian Financial Review for this weekend. As such it obviously has an Australian angle, but one that is also important for investors understanding how the new RCEP trade bloc is also going to transform the way capital flows in the Asiatic region and the new role that the Yuan and currencies like the AUD will play

August is normally the start of the quiet period in western markets with many investment managers working from home for a few weeks while the families enjoy a break from school.

One of the more interesting things to have occurred during the “hidden holiday season” has been the behaviour of the trade weighted US$, which has just completed a 23.6% fibonacci retracement of its rally from the February 2018 lows and, more importantly, has broken the long term support levels that have been in place for 18 months. The next level of support is back at the January 2019 lows.