One lesson of proper risk management is that when something with a meaningful short term downside and a non zero probability of happening is dismissed out of hand, we should be wary. Such is the case right now with risk and uncertainty over the outcome of the US Election.

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” --- MARK TWAIN

For those who believe that we really do live in The Matrix, the choice of Pfizer to announce the miracle vaccine for ‘the plague’ within a week of an Election that was largely fought over the failure of the Trump administration to ‘act’ on Covid is a deliberate ‘tell’.

The US Election looks to have gone to Biden, even though it also looks like it is going to the courts. In some ways, what is more important is that the failure of the widely predicted ‘Blue Wave’ to appear will put some mental and physical checks on some of the more ‘progressive’ and radical programmes that some were hoping to bring in. The bottom line is that markets like stalemates as they neuter the ‘policy risk’ factor.

There are many Bankers having a rant this morning about the reluctant debutant that is ANT financial. As the world’s largest IPO, it was highly significant and meant to provide a stimulant of hundreds of millions in fees for the Wall Street bankers before year end.