Investing in the new New Normal (watch)

1 min
March 9, 2023
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A video conversation with Neil Shah at Vantage, recorded when I was passing through London last month. In it we discuss a lot to do with the new 'New Normal' and also touch on the work that we are doing with Toscafund in terms of funds to be launched.

230206 - Edison Vantage - Toscafund (

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The 99 States of America

The multi-polar world emerging is producing a new 'Dollar Zone' of NATO plus Japan and S Korea. Investors need to start thinking what this will mean for capital flows.

First slowly....then all at once.

SVB was a shock as everyone assumed everyone else had done the due diligence, but in reality it is a simple story of a bank that became a bond fund and failed to manage its duration and funding risks only to be hit with the equivalent of a redemption as its almost entirely corporate deposit base asked for their money back. By contrast Credit Suisse is hardly a surprise, but coming at the same time, and also in options expiry week, helped to create an exaggerated sense of a banking crisis. There isn't one. Both banks are the collateral damage of the shift to a new New Normal, where interest rates are set at 'normal' levels and normal companies can make normal profits (while great companies can make great profits). Investors should use the sell off from expensive end of fair value to cheap as an opportunity to renew or place their bets on the likely winners under this new paradigm.

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