New Normal, New media, New Website

1 min
February 20, 2023
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Regular readers will have spotted that we have a brand new website, developed here in Hong Kong with our friends and colleagues at ToscaFund HK. Full disclosure; in addition to running Market Thinking Limited, I also act as CIO and Managing Director of ToscaFund HK. The sister company ToscaFund Asset Management, is a London based specialist investment firm established over 20 years ago. There is a link at the bottom of the page to their site or here ( for more information about them. (Note this is for professional investors only).

Meanwhile, we thought it fitting that the first post on the new website would be one involving  what is largely for us a new media, a video interview. This is something I did with the CISI (The Chartered Institute of Securities and Investment) when I was recently briefly back in London. In it, I discuss with George Littlejohn some of the topics already discussed here around the concept of what we are calling the new 'New Normal'. It's quite a long video, but hopefully worth the time(!)

Link to the video: CISI TV - The new "new normal" in investment

We hope to do more videos in the near future, all feedback welcome!

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Lightning Strikes and Butterfly WIngs

In the internet boom investors chased stocks like Nokia, Ericsson and Cisco to crazy sales multiples that required growth to be not just good, but parabolic to deliver any returns. A small disruption to those expectations led to a profit warning and a crash in the market. AI is the new 'internet' and investors are once again chasing picks and shovels. However, when a market is putting China stocks on less than 1x sales due to 'concerns over China/Taiwan while simultaneously paying 40x sales for a company where half its customers and all its manufacturing is done in the region, there is something of a disconnect in the risk management.

Market Thinking February 2024

The Bond markets have curbed some of their enthusiasm over rate cuts while momentum stays with US tech. Japan and EM ex China continue to behave well, although China continues to behave like a bear market, This has little to do with fundamentals like value or earnings and more to do with perceptions of risk and uncertainty that are driving liquidity flows. However, we would note that the stock market is not the Bellweather of the Economy that it is in the US and that intervention will take place only for stabilisation. They do not believe in the so called Fed put, or the wealth effect.

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