New Normal, New media, New Website

1 min
February 20, 2023
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Regular readers will have spotted that we have a brand new website, developed here in Hong Kong with our friends and colleagues at ToscaFund HK. Full disclosure; in addition to running Market Thinking Limited, I also act as CIO and Managing Director of ToscaFund HK. The sister company ToscaFund Asset Management, is a London based specialist investment firm established over 20 years ago. There is a link at the bottom of the page to their site or here ( for more information about them. (Note this is for professional investors only).

Meanwhile, we thought it fitting that the first post on the new website would be one involving  what is largely for us a new media, a video interview. This is something I did with the CISI (The Chartered Institute of Securities and Investment) when I was recently briefly back in London. In it, I discuss with George Littlejohn some of the topics already discussed here around the concept of what we are calling the new 'New Normal'. It's quite a long video, but hopefully worth the time(!)

Link to the video: CISI TV - The new "new normal" in investment

We hope to do more videos in the near future, all feedback welcome!

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The 99 States of America

The multi-polar world emerging is producing a new 'Dollar Zone' of NATO plus Japan and S Korea. Investors need to start thinking what this will mean for capital flows.

First slowly....then all at once.

SVB was a shock as everyone assumed everyone else had done the due diligence, but in reality it is a simple story of a bank that became a bond fund and failed to manage its duration and funding risks only to be hit with the equivalent of a redemption as its almost entirely corporate deposit base asked for their money back. By contrast Credit Suisse is hardly a surprise, but coming at the same time, and also in options expiry week, helped to create an exaggerated sense of a banking crisis. There isn't one. Both banks are the collateral damage of the shift to a new New Normal, where interest rates are set at 'normal' levels and normal companies can make normal profits (while great companies can make great profits). Investors should use the sell off from expensive end of fair value to cheap as an opportunity to renew or place their bets on the likely winners under this new paradigm.

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