It Would Help if They Understood Markets

1 min
read
May 13, 2020
Print Friendly and PDF
Print Friendly and PDF
Back
Captain Mainwearing: Private Pike, kindly report back on the situation regarding gas masks for the platoon.
Pike: I couldn’t get any Mr Mainwearing
Captain Mainwearing. Whyever not boy? I gave you a chit for 17 shillings and told you to go and buy a dozen gasmasks at one and fivepence each
Pike: But Mr Mainwearing, the price had gone up and I didn’t have enough money. Mum says that the Americans are buying them all.
Captain Mainwearing: Stupid Boy! Walker! you’re the sort of fellow who is good in these circumstances, can you help?
Private Walker: I’ll do my best Captain Mainwearing, but as Pike says, prices are going up.(draws heavily on cigarette)

Fade

Captain Mainwearing; Now gather round men and listen carefully. As Private Walker warned us, the price of gas masks has been going up, so with a classic display of British ingenuity we have come up with a new drill for the platoon. You will see here that Corporal Jones is wearing the platoon gas mask, which now cost 15 shillings each. On my command, Corporal Jones will engage with the enemy and fire one round. He will then carefully throw the mask to Sgt Wilson, who will quickly put in on and fire a second round at the enemy. And so on.
Private Frazer: We’re doomed!
With apologies to Jimmy Perry and David Croft
This is of course almost exactly the situation in the NHS with Personal Protective Equipment. (PPE) The irony is that the procurement side of the NHS has historically been seen as the gold standard globally since its very size means that it is able to strike a very hard bargain on drug pricing. Indeed, it basically sets the base price for other countries to work from. By contrast, the atomised nature of the US drug purchasing is a major reason why drug companies are able to charge, quite literally, ten times the price in the US for the same drugs. Discussing PPE with a supplier to the NHS yesterday, he pointed out that there is basically no shortage of PPE, it’s just that there is none available at the old price of 17p a mask that the NHS used to pay. As with Mainwearing and his platoon, the Americans are basically buying everything they can get their hands on and the price has gone up tenfold. It’s simple supply and demand and the obverse of the collapse in Oil prices. Unfortunately, the NHS doesn’t seem to understand how markets work and has acted like Private Pike. They didn’t engage as the price was rising and are now caught the wrong side of the price spike.

Continue Reading

Market Thinking April 2024

The rally in asset markets in Q4 has evolved into a new bull market for equities, but not for bonds, which remain in a bear phase, facing problems with both demand and supply. As such the greatest short term uncertainty and medium term risk for asset prices remains another mishap in the fixed income markets, similar to the funding crisis of last September or the distressed selling feedback loop of SVB last March. US monetary authorities are monitoring this closely. Meanwhile, politics is likely to cloud the narrative over the next few quarters with the prospect of some changes to both energy policy and foreign policy having knock on implications for markets/

Gold and Goldilocks

Bond markets are changing their views on Fed policy based on the high frequency data, seemingly unaware that the major variable the Fed is watching is the bond markets themselves. After the funding panic of last September and the regional bank wobble last March, the twin architects of US monetary policy (the Fed is now joined by the Treasury) are focussing on Bond Market stability as their primary aim. Politicians meanwhile, having seen how the bond markets ended the administration of UK Premier Liz Truss in September 2022 are keenly aware that it is not just "the Economy stupid", but the Economy and the markets that they need to manage the narrative for both voters and markets. They all need a form of Goldilocks - either good or bad, but not so good or so bad as to trigger either the markets to sell off or the authorities to react. Investors, meanwhile, conscious of the precarious balancing act Goldilocks requires, are increasingly looking at Gold.

You're now leaving the Market Thinking website

Please note that you are about to leave the website of Market Thinking and be redirected to Toscafund Hong Kong. For further information, please contact Toscafund Hong Kong.

ACCEPT