All Your Savings Are Belong to Us

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November 22, 2021
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Sometimes it is annoying/alarming to be right. As we noted in Trojan Horses and slippery slopes, the takeover of private sector savings to serve public sector policies is continuing apace.

the seemingly unstoppable ESG bandwagon may well represent a Trojan Horse through which ideologues can effectively control the allocation of trillions of $s in personal savings in accordance with their own opinions.
Market Thinking. Trojan Horses and Slippery Slopes April 2021

In a frankly bizarre edition of the Financial Times today with huge front page headlines with hyperbolic stories on hypersonic missiles that were nothing more than recycling of previous Pentagon pitching scare story narratives for more cash to counter China, we also find an article on the latest annual US-China Economic and Security Review Commission report. This committee, as the author explains, has been the source of much of the anti China economic narrative to date and this year, they are also trying to stop financial flows. From China’s point of view this is not actually that important, for as many, including George Soros, continue to mis-understand, China is not a typical emerging market needing western financing. It is a net exporter of capital and recent developments have shown that it has absolutely no intention of allowing the neo-classical rentier economy economics of Wall Street to exploit its economy. (see George Soros talks his book). What should be far more alarming for the rest of us is the following quote from the author, who importantly is not only an Associate Editor at the FT, but also the Global Economics Analyst at CNN and thus at the heart of East coast group think.

“It’s also hard to imagine that western financial institutions purporting to prioritise ESG concerns won’t come under increasing pressure to justify the hypocrisies of working with an autocratic government”
Rana Foroohar Financial Times (and also CNN). November 2021

So there we have it. In a form of Financial Cancel Culture. ESG managers, so recently celebrated and venerated at their own Glastonbury, are now going to be ‘pressured’ to not invest in things that are not approved by the US State Department. To re-phrase the popular meme from Zero Wing; ” All your savings are belong to US”

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Market Thinking April 2024

The rally in asset markets in Q4 has evolved into a new bull market for equities, but not for bonds, which remain in a bear phase, facing problems with both demand and supply. As such the greatest short term uncertainty and medium term risk for asset prices remains another mishap in the fixed income markets, similar to the funding crisis of last September or the distressed selling feedback loop of SVB last March. US monetary authorities are monitoring this closely. Meanwhile, politics is likely to cloud the narrative over the next few quarters with the prospect of some changes to both energy policy and foreign policy having knock on implications for markets/

Gold and Goldilocks

Bond markets are changing their views on Fed policy based on the high frequency data, seemingly unaware that the major variable the Fed is watching is the bond markets themselves. After the funding panic of last September and the regional bank wobble last March, the twin architects of US monetary policy (the Fed is now joined by the Treasury) are focussing on Bond Market stability as their primary aim. Politicians meanwhile, having seen how the bond markets ended the administration of UK Premier Liz Truss in September 2022 are keenly aware that it is not just "the Economy stupid", but the Economy and the markets that they need to manage the narrative for both voters and markets. They all need a form of Goldilocks - either good or bad, but not so good or so bad as to trigger either the markets to sell off or the authorities to react. Investors, meanwhile, conscious of the precarious balancing act Goldilocks requires, are increasingly looking at Gold.

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