20 Years Ago

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September 11, 2021
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Like a lot of people over a certain age, I remember exactly where I was this day 20 years ago, on the trading floor of Commerzbank Securities in London, having interrupted preparations for a delayed marketing trip to New York when one of the traders called out that a plane had hit the World Trade Centre. We all then watched disbelieving as the second one hit live on TV and while none of us knew what was happening, we knew it was bad. But for many of us the really shocking part came almost an hour later, when the whole building of Tower 2 (actually the second one to be hit) collapsed in on itself, followed by Tower 1 half an hour after that. The Twin Towers had gone.

There is a well known phenomenon that our memories of events change over time (indeed memories of 9/11 are widely cited in studies about this), so one hesitates a little, but two things stand out for me. First, the personal shock that the delayed marketing trip I had been putting together the documents for that morning was originally scheduled for that week, that day. I would have been there. Back then, the traffic going downtown mid morning was always bad, so we always started the day of meetings downtown at the World Trade Centre and worked our way uptown. We all have a tendency to put ourselves into ‘the movie in our own head’, but the likelihood would have been that flying Monday from the UK, on that Tuesday morning I would have followed the usual plan and been either with Morgan Stanley in Tower One or American Express in Tower 7. Incidentally, a somewhat overlooked fact today is that Tower 7 also collapsed in on itself around 5.30pm, almost seven hours after Tower 1.

The second thing that stands out in my memory though is the comment the following day from my colleague on the Bond side, a fine gentleman call Bob Gay. By then we were all getting a sense that the world had shifted on its axis, but Bob’s words still stick with me. He lived up in Connecticut and when I asked if he was doing OK, he said that he was but that it was hard, and added quite simply of his small suburb “ A lot of moms and Dads didn’t come home last night.”

R.I.P

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Market Thinking May 2024

After a powerful run from q4 2023, equities paused in April, with many of the momentum stocks simply running out of, well, momentum and leading many to revisit the old adage of 'Sell in May'. Meanwhile, sentiment in the bond markets soured further as the prospect of rate cuts receded - although we remain of the view that the main purpose of rate cuts now is to ensure the stability of bond markets themselves. The best performance once again came from China and Hong Kong as these markets start a (long delayed) catch up as distressed sellers are cleared from the markets. Markets are generally trying to establish some trading ranges for the summer months and while foreign policy is increasingly bellicose as led by politicians facing re-election as well as the defence and energy sector lobbyists, western trade lobbyists are also hard at work, erecting tariff barriers and trying to co-opt third parties to do the same. While this is not good for their own consumers, it is also fighting the reality of high quality, much cheaper, products coming from Asian competitors, most of whom are not also facing high energy costs. Nor is a strong dollar helping. As such, many of the big global companies are facing serious competition in third party markets and investors, also looking to diversify portfolios, are starting to look at their overseas competitors.

Market Thinking April 2024

The rally in asset markets in Q4 has evolved into a new bull market for equities, but not for bonds, which remain in a bear phase, facing problems with both demand and supply. As such the greatest short term uncertainty and medium term risk for asset prices remains another mishap in the fixed income markets, similar to the funding crisis of last September or the distressed selling feedback loop of SVB last March. US monetary authorities are monitoring this closely. Meanwhile, politics is likely to cloud the narrative over the next few quarters with the prospect of some changes to both energy policy and foreign policy having knock on implications for markets/

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