THG Life..

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May 24, 2021
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After, yet another, glossy puff piece in the Times about ‘Buff Billionaire’ Matt Moulding of THG, I posted a comment suggesting that they should consider tagging it as Advertorial. I got a few likes and replies before the comment was deleted as seemingly contradicting the Times’ Policies – presumably on objectivity. Truth hurts obviously.

Importantly, in a world seemingly obsessed with ESG we believe that with the exception perhaps of the FT (Wirecard etc) not enough importance is being attached to the G (governance) part and from a regulatory standpoint, it is important that due attention is paid to the role of Financial PR in aggressively spinning positive stories about stocks that retail investors are herded into. In the case of THG, one of the more egregious corporate governance issues was about how Matt Moulding and his backers not only awarded him a substantial share of the business but also allowed him to take over the property division, previously acquired with debt and including a spa and a luxury townhouse hotel as well as the warehouses – debt that was paid off at the floatation – and then lease it back to the company for around GBP20m a year. Also the ridiculously low bar of awarding him a further GBP1bn of shares on achieving a laughably low target of the share price being over 670p for something like 15 consecutive days. This was achieved in a brief window before Christmas as the company was pushed into the Stoxx Index and thus picked up by index trackers with no assessment of governance. These factors, together with the controlling Golden Share he also has, were reasons for why it never went in the FTSE in the first place and probably why the stock went south shortly after achieving his target for that extra billion (-20% ytd). Plus of course the powerful and connected insiders from the retail industry conveniently had their lock-ups waived in January, allowing them to get out close to the high.

Recently the DB derivative traders turned investors from SoftTouch have turned up with a fancy structure allowing them to own the ‘tech’ part of THG, which while currently very small was the dubious justification for the Brokers listing THG as what the PR spinmeisters call ‘one of the UK’s biggest tech companies’ when it is really just another online retailer. As part of that they have subscribed to some more stock – at around 596p, considerably lower than the 760p that the insiders sold out in January and also lower than the brief period at 670p that triggered the extra billion for the Buff Billionaire (who really doesn’t like all the fuss. Honestly.) Meanwhile, here’s a picture of him on a jet/yacht/with Obama….

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Market Thinking May 2024

After a powerful run from q4 2023, equities paused in April, with many of the momentum stocks simply running out of, well, momentum and leading many to revisit the old adage of 'Sell in May'. Meanwhile, sentiment in the bond markets soured further as the prospect of rate cuts receded - although we remain of the view that the main purpose of rate cuts now is to ensure the stability of bond markets themselves. The best performance once again came from China and Hong Kong as these markets start a (long delayed) catch up as distressed sellers are cleared from the markets. Markets are generally trying to establish some trading ranges for the summer months and while foreign policy is increasingly bellicose as led by politicians facing re-election as well as the defence and energy sector lobbyists, western trade lobbyists are also hard at work, erecting tariff barriers and trying to co-opt third parties to do the same. While this is not good for their own consumers, it is also fighting the reality of high quality, much cheaper, products coming from Asian competitors, most of whom are not also facing high energy costs. Nor is a strong dollar helping. As such, many of the big global companies are facing serious competition in third party markets and investors, also looking to diversify portfolios, are starting to look at their overseas competitors.

Market Thinking April 2024

The rally in asset markets in Q4 has evolved into a new bull market for equities, but not for bonds, which remain in a bear phase, facing problems with both demand and supply. As such the greatest short term uncertainty and medium term risk for asset prices remains another mishap in the fixed income markets, similar to the funding crisis of last September or the distressed selling feedback loop of SVB last March. US monetary authorities are monitoring this closely. Meanwhile, politics is likely to cloud the narrative over the next few quarters with the prospect of some changes to both energy policy and foreign policy having knock on implications for markets/

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